科技进步对四川省农业发展贡献的时空比较分析

运用索洛余值法估算得到四川省不同时间段、不同区域和不同行业农业科技进步贡献率,通过纵向、横向比较,评价判断科技进步对四川省农业发展的贡献水平,为提高四川省农业科技的投入、推广和应用提供依据。结果表明,四川省农业科技进步贡献率不断提高,由＂八五＂的40.90%提高到＂十五＂的45.54%,但增长趋势减缓,与全国的差距由＂八五＂的正差距（6.62%）转变为＂十五＂的负差距（-0.14%）;四川省不同区域间以丘陵区的科技进步贡献率最高,为69.8%,其他地区差异不大,在41.0%～43.0%,但对农业总产值的贡献要素存在较大差距,丘陵区主要靠科技进步,而平原区和山区靠物质投入和科技进步,民族地区则是靠物质投入、劳动力增长、扩大耕地面积和农业科技的综合作用;四川省农业内部各行业的农业科技进步贡献率以种植业最高,为61.3%,其次为畜牧业（27.1%）、林业（21.9%）,渔业最小,仅为17.8%,差距较大,表明科技在畜牧业、林业和渔业发挥作用的空间十分巨大。

Comparative Analysis of Space-time on the Contribution of Scientific and Technological Progress to Agricultural Development in Sichuan Province

Solow residual value method was used to estimate the contribution rate of agricultural scientific and technological progress in different time periods,different regions and different sectors in Sichuan Province in order to provide the basis for imput,extension and application of improving the Sichuan agricultural science and technology.The main results showed that the contribution rate of Sichuan agricultural scientific and technological progress was continuously rising,from 40.90%(during the period of "the 8th Five-Year Plan")to 45.54%(during the period of "the 10th Five-Year Plan"),but the growth was slow.The gap with the nation was from the positive gap(6.62%)into a negative gap(-0.14%).Between different regions in Sichuan,the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress in hilly area was the highest(69.8%),the other regions did not differ greatly,at the 41.0%-43.0%.However,there was a big gap between contribution elements of total agricultural output value,hilly area mainly relied on scientific and technological progress,while plain areas and mountainous areas relied on material inputs and technological progress,ethnic regions relied on the integrative function of material inputs,labor force growth,expanding the cultivated area and agricultural science and technology.Among the various sectors within agriculture in Sichuan Province,the contribution rate of farming was the highest,which reached 61.3%,the contribution rate of animal husbandry was 27.1%,forestry was 21.9%,fisheries(17.8%)was the minimum.This large gap showed that science and technology would play a huge and critical role in animal husbandry,forestry and fisheries.