人工林胡桃楸木材纤维长度径向变异规律研究

木材纤维长度是衡量木材材质、材性和植物纤维原料质量优劣的较重要的指标之一。为初步掌握人工林胡桃楸木材材质材性的径向变异规律,以其木纤维长度为研究对象,采用时间序列和一元回归两种分析方法,进行数据拟合和短期预测。研究结果表明,采用时间序列模型ARIMA和一元回归方程可以对人工林胡桃楸木纤维长度进行数据拟合与4 a短期预测,ARIMA模型的拟合效果优于一元回归方程,一元回归方程的预测效果优于ARIMA模型。

Study on the Radial Variation of Wood Fiber Length for Manchurian Walnut Plantation

Wood fiber length is one of the key indexes in evaluating wood properties and the quality of plant fiber raw materials. In order to have a sound understanding of wood radial variation, the wood fiber length of Manchurian walnut in different growth rings was analyzed. Time series methods and single-variable regression model were used in data fitting and short-term prediction. The re- suits showed that time series model ARIMA and single-variable regression equation can be applied to data fitting and 4-year short-term prediction of wood fiber length for Manchurian walnut plantation. Model ARIMA has a better degree of fit than single-variable regression equation, while an excellent predictive effect is obtained from the single-variable regression equation.