黄土丘陵沟壑区纸坊沟小流域农业生态安全态势变化的驱动力分析

以黄土丘陵沟壑区纸坊沟小流域为研究对象，利用1985-2006年调查和监测资料，综合现有研究成果，将主成分分析和通径分析方法相结合，分析可能影响农业生态安全态势变化的各因子，探讨农业生态安全态势变化的驱动力。结果表明：自然条件是影响黄土丘陵沟壑区纸坊沟小流域农业生态安全态势变化的基础，人文社会经济条件是其变化的主要驱动力，具体可归纳为经济发展、人口压力、流域产业结构调整和农业科技进步4类因子；此外，国家和区域的相关政策、农业产业链与资源量相关度对农业生态安全也有一定影响。

Driving forces analysis of agro-ecological security change of Zhifanggou Catchment in Hilly-gully Region of the Loess Plateau

Based on investigation and monitoring data from 1985 to 2006 at Zhifanggou Catchment in Hilly-gully Region of the Loess Plateau and current research achievement,methods of principal components analysis(PCA) and path analysis(PA) were combined to analyze impact factors which affect change of agro-ecological security state,and driving forces of agro-ecological security change were discussed.The obtained results show that the basis of agro-ecological security change are natural conditions and its main driving forces are socio-economic situations that can be classified into four types,which are economic development,the pressure of population,industrial restructuring of catchment,agricultural scientific and technological progress.Besides,the related policies of nation and region,correlation degree of agricultural industrial chain and resources have influence on it to some extent.