基于气象因子的柏木属植物引种成活率预测模型

目的]探索柏木属(Cupressus L.)植物在南京中山植物园的引种成活率与来源地各气象因子之间的关系。方法]根据1976年以来的档案数据,通过主成分分析法对气象因子参数进行降维处理,得到2个相互独立的主成分;以主成分为自变量,平均成活率为因变量,利用回归分析法建立引种成活率预测模型。结果]引种成活率预测模型为:Y=88.480+0.028Z_1-0.10Z_2,其中主成分Z_1温光条件因子是决定引种成活率最主要的因素。结论]该模型可为柏木属植物引种前评估提供理论依据。

Prediction Model of Survival Rates of Introduced Cupressus Plants Based on Meteorological Factors

Objective] The aim was to study the relationship between the survival rate of introduced Cupressus plants in Nanjing botanical garden Mem.Sun Yat-sen and the environmental factors of source area.Method] The data from 1976 to now was studied by the principal component analysis(PCA).The meteorological parameters were reduced to 2 independent principal components.With the principal components as independent variable, the average survival rate as dependent variable, the regression analysis method was used to establish the prediction model of the survival rate.Result] The prediction model of the survival rate was as followed:Y=88.480+0.028Z1-0.10Z2, the main component Z1 as temperature and light condition factor was the most important factor determining survival rate of introduction.Conclusion] This model can provide the basis for the evaluation of Cupressus plant introduction.