重庆市粮食安全与耕地总量动态平衡测算研究

利用重庆市1999-2007年的社会经济统计资料和土地利用变更调查数据,结合粮食平衡系数、距平系数和粮食盈缺量等指标,分析了重庆市40个区县的粮食盈缺情况,在此基础上,结合人口预测模型预测了各区县未来粮食的平衡状况.结果表明,一方面,重庆市耕地总量不容乐观,人口不断增加,粮食产量波动却十分明显,三者的变化直接导致人均粮食生产水平下降;另一方面,以全国为参照,重庆市与全国人均粮食占有率比较接近,一直被划为中国的产销平衡地区.预计到2030年,重庆市的粮食供求可达到基本平衡.但从市内看,不同区县的人均粮食生产水平差异显著,因此应对不同地区的耕地实行分区管制原则,以确保全市耕地总量的动态平衡.

Calculation of Regional Grain Security and Dynamic Equilibrium of Cultivated Land Quantity in Chongqing

The state of cultivated land in Chongqing city is complicated and various, and the contradiction of people and land, which has been aggravated with the rapid economy growth since 1980's, became an important problem in regional sustainable development. In this article, through a large number of data between 1999 and 2007, the variation condition of cultivated land, population and grain in the 9 years in Chongqing city was analyzed, and the balance coefficient and grain anomaly coefficient were calculated. Based on these calculations, the grain situation of 40 districts in Chongqing city was analyzed. The population forecast model was used to predict the balance situation of grain in different districts in the future.