| 基于出游率的我国国内旅游发展及预测研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 李振亭,马耀峰,李创新,高军.基于出游率的我国国内旅游发展及预测研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009(4). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 李振亭 马耀峰 李创新 高军 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院; |
| |
| 摘 要： | 对国内旅游发展研究现状分析的基础上,建立了国内旅游年人均出游率本底趋势线,从年人均出游率指标角度,分析预测我国国内旅游总体发展趋势。依据本底趋势线分析了中国国内旅游发展的固有趋势,估算1989年政治风波和2003年"非典"危机对中国国内旅游造成的损失,最后对中国"十一五"期间的国内旅游发展进行了预测。
|
| 关 键 词： | 年人均出游率 国内旅游 本底趋势线 预测 |
The research on Chinese domestic tourist development and forecasting based on tourist rate |
| |
| LI Zhenting,MA Yaofeng,LI Chuangxin,GAOjun.The research on Chinese domestic tourist development and forecasting based on tourist rate[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2009(4). |
| |
| Authors: | LI Zhenting MA Yaofeng LI Chuangxin GAOjun |
| |
| Institution: | College of Tourism and Environment;Shaanxi Normal university;Xi'an 710062;China |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the analysis of Chinese domestic tourism research,this research set up a new model to evaluate the devopment trend of Chinese domestic tourism based on tourism rate.What's more,the conception of tourist background trend line based on tourism rate was put forward here.Furthermore,this research also analysed the intrinsical developmental trend of Chinese domestic tourism by tourist background trend line based on tourism rate.With this conception,the expense of the political wave in 1989 and "SARS" in... |
| |
| Keywords: | Tourism rate Chinese domestic tourism Tourist background trend line Forecasting |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
|
