陕西省54a来农业干旱灾害特征研究

干旱灾害是影响陕西省农业经济可持续发展的主要限制因素。本文利用陕西省54a来的农业旱灾灾情资料对旱灾特征进行了详细分析和预测,得出陕西省旱灾有发生频率加快、灾情加重趋势,干旱灾害具有较强的持续性。干旱受灾面积有3~4a的变化周期,农业旱灾成灾率和受灾率呈正相关,线性回归方程为y=0.32+0.73x。灾害有明显的区域差异性,陕北灾情最严重,关中次之,陕南最轻。灾害主要集中在渭南市、榆林市、商洛市、咸阳市、汉中市、延安市、铜川市、宝鸡市、洛川县、定边县。

The Study on the Characteristics of Agricultural Drought Disasters in Recent 54a in Shaanxi Province

Drought disaster is a main factor of influencing economic and sustainable development of agriculture in Shaanxi Province.This text utilized the materials of agricultural droughts disaster sover the past 54 years of Shaanxi Province to analyse and predict the droughts characteristic.The frequency of droughts in Shaanxi Province was accelerated and the disasters was aggravated.The drought disaster area showed the change cycle of 3 to 4 years.Agricultural droughts and suffering disaster rate presented positive correlation,the linear return equation was y=0.32 0.73x.There were obvious regional differences of the droughts,disasters in the north of Shaanxi Province were the most serious,Guanzhong area took second place,the south of Shaanxi was the lightest.Droughts mainly centered in Weinan,Yulin,Shangluo,Xianyang,Hanzhong,Yan'an,Tong chuan,Baoji,Luochuan County,Dingbian county.