苏锡常城市群土地利用冲突空间测度及异质性分析

为了探究城镇建设用地扩张对土地利用冲突的影响,以城镇化水平快速提高的苏锡常地区为例,基于1990—2018年土地利用分类数据,采用景观风险评价方法,通过计算空间的外部压力、脆弱性及稳定性指数构建土地利用冲突综合测度模型,借鉴倒“U”型理论,将空间冲突分为稳定可控、基本可控、基本失控和严重失控4种类型,对苏锡常地区空间冲突水平进行了评估。结果表明:(1)近30年来,苏锡常地区整体空间冲突水平以可控类型为主,但冲突强度呈现上升趋势,1990—2018年平均冲突指数由0.269增长至0.418,近1.55倍;(2)不同用地类型的空间冲突强度存在差异,林草地和水域空间冲突水平较低,建设用地空间冲突水平最高且失控类型在1990—2018年提升了14.3%,有进一步激化扩散趋势;(3)土地利用冲突存在空间相互关系,高—高值在苏、锡、常市中心区及江阴、张家港、常熟、昆山市集聚,低—低值则主要分布在西部溧阳市山地及水域周边。研究结果可为有效识别苏锡常地区土地利用冲突,优化区域发展模式提供理论参考。

Spatial Evaluate and Heterogeneity Analysis of Land Use Conflict in Su-Xi-Chang Urban Agglomeration

In order to explore the impact of urban construction land expansion on land use conflict, Su-Xi-Chang urban agglomeration was taken as the research area to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of land use conflict by calculating indices of the spatial external pressure, vulnerability and stability. Based on the inverted ‘U-shaped' theory, space conflicts were classified into four types: stable control, basic control, basic out of control and serious out of control. The results show that:(1)over the past 30 years, the overall level of spatial conflict in Su-Xi-Chang area was in a controllable state, but the intensity of conflict showed an upward trend, with the average conflict index increasing from 0.269 in 1990 to 0.418 in 2018, nearly 1.55 times;(2)there were differences in spatial conflict intensity among different land use types; specifically, the spatial conflict level of forest, grassland and water area was low, while that of construction land was high and the state of out of control increased by 14.3% during the study period, showing a trend of further intensification and diffusion;(3)there was a spatial correlation between land use conflicts; the high-value areas concentrated in the central areas of Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou, as well as Jiangyin, Zhangjiagang, Changshu and Kunshan, while the low-value areas mainly distributed in the mountains and waters of Liyang City. This study can provide theoretical reference for effectively identifying land use conflicts and optimizing regional development patterns in Su-Xi-Chang urban agglomeration.