基于GeoSOS-FLUS的涪江流域生态系统服务价值评估及多情景模拟

为了探究涪江流域的土地利用结构及其生态服务价值的时空变化,通过预测情景支持未来土地规划,研究基于1980—2018年5期遥感影像,构建生态系统服务价值评估模型并分析时空动态变化,采用GeoSOS-FLUS模拟自然发展情景、耕地安全情景、生态保护情景和快速发展4种情景下未来的土地利用变化及生态系统服务价值的演变趋势。结果表明:(1)1980—2018年,耕地面积减少542.25 km²,减幅为2.57%; 建设用地扩张面积525.66 km²,增幅达255.50%。(2)对应其生态系统服务价值呈增加趋势,由1980年的776.48亿元增加到2018年的783.67亿元,不同土地利用类型对生态系统服务价值的贡献顺序为林地>耕地>水域>草地>未利用土地。(3)在空间上呈现上游高中下游低,下游地区大致呈现由中部向东西两侧递减趋势,流域西南部是低价值区。(4)4种发展情景下,2030年的生态服务价值分别是784.80亿元、740.31亿元、811.09亿元和751.40亿元,相较于2015年变化了1.44亿元(增加)、-43.05亿元(减少)、27.74亿元(增加)和-31.96亿元(减少)。综上,38年来流域生态价值提高,同时模拟结果显示为维持该流域生态安全,需要加强生态用地的抚育。

Ecosystem Service Value Assessment and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Fujiang River Basin Based on GeoSOS-FLUS

In order to explore the spatial-temporal changes of land use structure and its ecosystem service value in the Fujiang River Basin, and support future land planning through prediction scenarios, based on five remote sensing images from 1980 to 2018, we constructed an ecosystem service value evaluation model to analyze the dynamic changes of time and space, and used GeoSOS-FLUS to simulate the evolution trend of future land use change and ecosystem service value under four scenarios: natural development scenario, cultivated land security scenario, ecological protection scenario and rapid development scenario. The results showed that:(1)from 1980 to 2018, the cultivated land area decreased by 542.25 km², the decrease rate was 2.57%, and the construction land expanded by 525.66 km², the increase rate was 255.50%;(2)the value of ecosystem services increased from 77.648 billion yuan in 1980 to 78.367 billion yuan in 2018; and the contribution order of different land use types to ecosystem service value was woodland>cultivated land>water area>grassland>unused land;(3)the value of ecosystem services in the upper reaches was higher than that in the lower reaches; the value of ecosystem services in the lower reaches decreased from the middle to the east and west; the southwest of the basin is the low value area of ecosystem services;(4)under the four development scenarios, the value of ecological services in 2030 was 78.480 billion yuan, 74.031 billion yuan, 81.109 billion yuan and 75.140 billion yuan, respectively, which changed 144 million yuan(increase), -4.305 billion yuan(decrease), 2.774 billion yuan(increase)and -3.196 billion yuan(decrease)compared with 2015. To sum up, the ecological value of the basin had improved in the past 38 years. At the same time, the simulation results show that it is necessary to strengthen the cultivation of ecological land in order to maintain the ecological security of the basin.