近80年来北洛河流域径流变化特征及其归因分析

为了探究北洛河流域径流变化特征及其驱动因子，对流域治理规划和生态环境建设提供科学依据，基于北洛河流域1937—2018年径流数据，采用现代数理统计方法对径流特征进行了分析，并结合1952—2019年气象资料分析了气候变化对径流的影响。通过降水—径流双累积曲线法定量分析了气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率。结果表明：北洛河流域1937—2018年年均径流量显著减少(p<0.01),在1970年、1994年发生突变，且存在54 a的主周期变化。1956—2019年北洛河流域降水变化趋势不显著(p>0.05),气温显著增加(p<0.01),气候变化对北洛河径流量起到减小作用。与1957—1970年相比，1971—1994,1995—2018年人类活动对于径流减少的贡献率分别高达92%和97%,人类活动是使北洛河径流量发生减少和突变的关键因子。

Variation Characteristics of Runoff in Beiluo River Basin over the Past 80 Years and Its Attribution Analysis

Studying the variation characteristics of runoff change and its driving factors in the Beiluo River Basin can provide a scientific basis for the governance planning and ecological environment construction in the basin. Based on the runoff data of the Beiluo River Basin from 1937 to 2018, this study analyzed the characteristics of runoff by using modern mathematical statistics, and assessed the influence of climate change on runoff in combination with meteorological data from 1952 to 2019. The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff change were quantitatively analyzed by using the precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve method. The results showed that the average annual runoff in the Beiluo River Basin decreased significantly from 1937 to 2018(p<0.01), and suddenly changed in 1970 and 1994, with a main cycle change of 54 years. From 1956 to 2019, the precipitation in the Beiluo River Basin had no significant change trend(p>0.05), but the temperature had increased significantly(p<0.01). Climate change had reduced the runoff of the Beiluo River. Compared with the period from 1957 to 1970, the contribution rates of human activities to runoff reduction in the periods of 1971—1994 and 1995—2018 were as high as 92% and 97%, respectively, which were the key factors for reduction and mutation of runoff in the Beiluo River Basin.