基于GLDAS-2数据的中国极端降水事件时空变异性研究

全球气候变化导致极端降水事件频发，为了做好应对极端事件的准备，利用GLDAS-2.0数据集进行可靠性分析后，提取9个极端降水指标，使用M-K检验方法分析了1948—2014年中国极端降水事件时空变化特征及其突变趋势。结果表明：全国发生极端降水事件的频率增高，西北、西南和中南地区的年降水量增强趋势明显，连续湿润天数变少，强降水变多，其中西北地区变化最为明显；西北地区中西部，中南与西北、华东的两个交界范围，极端降水相关指标突变趋势明显。结果显示西北地区中西部，西南和中南交界地区以及中南和华东交界地区发生极端降水的频率高，应提前做好应对各种自然灾害的准备。

Research on the Spatiotemporal Variability of Extreme Precipitation Events in China Based on GLDAS-2 Data

Global climate change leads to frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation events. In order to prepare for countermeasure to extreme events, 9 extreme precipitation indicators were extracted based on reliability analysis using the GLDAS-2.0 data set, and the M-K test was used to analyze the traits of the extreme precipitation in China from 1948 to 2014. The results show that the frequency of extreme precipitation events over the country had been increasing, and the apparent increases in the amounts of precipitation were observed in annual precipitation in the northwest, southwest and central and southern regions, and changes in the consecutive wet days and heavy precipitation showed that the consecutive wet days in northwest China decreased significantly while the heavy precipitation increased; in the border of central and western China, central and southern China, northwest and east China, extreme precipitation indicators were obviously abrupt. With respect to the high frequency of extreme precipitation in the central and western regions of northwest China, the junction of southwest and central south and the junction of central south and east China, preparations for combating various natural disasters should be made in advance.