浙江省引起高致病性禽流感暴发流行的风险因子调查与分析

为明确浙江省高致病性禽流感(HPAI)发生的风险水平,我们开展了相关风险因子调查和分析工作.本研究将风险因子等级分为高、较高、中和低4个风险等级,对母源抗体、免疫抗体、家禽密度、饲养设施、禽类混养、饲养场地理位置、水禽和迁徙鸟、活禽市场等风险因子进行了定量评估.通过权重赋值评估浙江省发生的HPAI的风险水平为0.66875,判定为中等,提示浙江省发生禽流感疫情的可能性时刻存在.通过风险因子分析,发现了高致病禽流感防控工作中存在的薄弱环节,明确今后工作的重点,为浙江省HPAI管理和决策提供了依据.

Investigation and analysis of risk factors on the outbreak of HPAI in Zhejiang province

Risk factors associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) were investigated and assessed to measure the risk of HPAI occurrences in Zhejiang province. The risk level was categorized into 4 classes (extremely high, high, medium, and low). Risk factors of maternal antibodies, immunity antibodies, poultry density, facility and geographical position of farms, mixed feeding, waterfowl and migratory birds and live birds market etc. were assessed quantitatively. The results showed that the HPAI outbreak risk is 0.66875, which belongs to medium-level. The results suggest that risk of HPAI outbreaks is still in Zhejiang province. The important problems were found through the investigation and analysis, and the results provides a basic reference for the prevention and control of HPAI in Zhejiang province.