统计预测方法在耕地保有量需求预测中的研究——以毕节地区为例

依据毕节地区经济、人口和耕地数据,采用回归预测和时间序列预测方法,综合分析影响耕地保有数量的因素,建立耕地保有量需求预测模型,并将通过评价与解释确定的最优模型作为毕节地区耕地保有量预测方案。结果表明,基于统计预测的耕地保有量预测方法综合了耕地利用情况与社会经济发展态势,有较强的应用背景和社会需求,可为政府新一轮的土地利用总体规划提供决策支持。

Study on Applications of Statistical Forecast in Cultivated Land Requirements Prediction

According to the economic data,population and arable land in Bijie Area,regression forecasting methods and time series prediction methods were used,factors that affect the amount of cultivated land were comprehensive analyzed,demand forecasting model of cultivated land amount was set up,and the optimal model could be confirmed by evaluation and explanation. The results showed that the method based on statistical forecast analysis can be well suited because it took the integration of both land use complexion and community economy,and can provide decision support for programming of general land use planning.