转基因大豆发展及中国大豆产业对策

为探讨中国商业化种植转基因大豆的可行性，利用公布的统计数据，系统分析了全球大豆主产国转基因大豆的发展及中国种植转基因大豆可能存在的问题。结果表明：1）1996-2004年，美国、阿根廷和巴西转基因大豆种植率分别从2％、1．7％和0增至85％、98％和22％。2）美国和阿根廷转基因大豆快速发展的主要原因是种植转基因大豆可使杂草管理便利化和高效率。3）可能存在问题是：提高单产和增加利润存在不确定性；中国是大豆原产地并具有独特的消费结构，而转基因大豆生物安全和食品安全隐患会对中国大豆产业产生重大影响：中国生产转基因大豆缺乏竞争优势。因此建议：继续禁止在中国商业化种植转基因大豆。

Development of genetically modified soybean and strategy for soybean industry of China

In order to study the feasibility of commercialized growing genetically modified soybean (GMS) in China, some issues were analyzed systematically by using statistical data ,which included the development of GMS in the main countries for soybean production all over the world, and the problems that might be met when GMS was to be commercially grown in China. The results showed that during the period from 1996 to 2004, the adoption rate of GMS increased from 2% to 85% in USA, from 1 7% to 98% in Argentina, and from 0% to 22% in Brazil.The main reasons of the fast development of GMS in USA and Argentina were that GMS made the weed control in soybean production convenient and with high efficiency. The problems of commercialized growing GMS in China might include that the increase of soybean yield and profits gained in production was unstable; Soybean is originated from China and there is a unique consumption model of soybean in China; potential danger of bio safety and food safety of GMS may have great influences on soybean industry in China; and the soybean industry in China is short of competitive advantages in world market. Therefore, it is proposed that commercialized growing GMS in China should be prohibited continuously.