林火发生预报模型研究进展

森林火灾直接影响森林生态环境质量，严重威胁人类生命财产安全，还会造成病虫害频发、群落退化等次生灾害。由于综合考虑了各类影响林火发生的因子，林火发生预报模型是目前预报结果最为准确的林火预报预测方法。文中从林火驱动因子、林火发生预报模型构建、模型检验方法等3个方面综述国内外林火发生预报模型的发展现状和研究成果，讨论各类林火发生预报模型的优缺点，梳理目前研究中存在的问题，对其研究前景进行展望，并结合我国实际情况提出开展更大空间尺度林火预报的研究建议，以期为相关研究和林火管理工作提供参考。

Research Progress in Forest Fire Occurrence Prediction Models

Forest fires will directly affect the quality of forest ecological environment, seriously threaten the safety of human life and property, and cause secondary disasters such as frequent occurrence of pests and diseases and community degradation. Because of the comprehensive consideration of various factors that affect the occurrence of forest fires, the forest fire occurrence prediction model is the most accurate method of forecasting forest fires. This paper reviews the development status and research results of forest fire forecast models at home and abroad from three aspects of forest fire driving factors, forest fire occurrence prediction model construction, and model verification methods. It discusses the advantages and disadvantages of various forest fire occurrence prediction models, identifies the existing problems rising in the current research, and describes its research prospects. The suggestions for the research on forest fire prediction on a larger spatial scale are put forward based on the actual situation in China, with a view to providing reference for related research and forest fire management.