Incubating an Illusion? Long‐Term Incubator Firm Performance after Graduation

Local economic development policies worldwide perceive business incubation as an effective measure to promote regional growth through the support of young and innovative ventures. The common assumption is that incubation promotes firm growth, in particular after these firms graduated from their incubator organisations. However, knowledge regarding the performance of incubated ventures after they have (successfully) completed their incubation is almost non‐existent. This article investigates the long‐term development of 324 graduate firms from five German business incubators (incubated between 1990 and 2006). The present study does not suffer from a survivor bias, meaning that performance data of non‐surviving firms is also included. Using employment and sales measures as performance indicators, this study contradicts existing results with regard to long‐term graduate performance. Findings of this paper do not support the presumption of sustainable and strong firm growth beyond incubation.