陕西省能源消费碳排放影响因素分析与政策启示

根据IPCC碳排放计算方法计算了陕西省1980—2010年的能源消费碳排放量，系统分析了陕西能源消费碳排放总量、碳排放结构的变化，并对陕西碳排放进行阶段划分，同时运用对数平均迪氏指数法LMDI，定量分析了碳排放影响因素的作用程度。结果表明:1980—2010年，陕西省碳排放总量和人均碳排放呈波动上升的“N”型曲线，煤炭消费是碳排放的主要来源，在其他因素不变的情况下，能源消费量直接决定碳排放量和人均碳排放量；陕西省碳排放经历了3个阶段，分别是经济快速增长碳排放低速增长阶段（1980—1996年），经济低速增长碳排放缓慢降低阶段（1996—2000年），经济和碳排放快速增长阶段（2000—2010年）；陕西碳排放的主要驱动因素是经济产出，对碳排放的整体贡献为216.17%；其次为产业结构，整体贡献为9.72%；最后是人口，整体贡献为8.81%；主要抑制因素是能源强度，整体贡献为-131.96%；能源结构的整体贡献为-2.75%。

Impact Factors and Policy Implications of Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption in Shaanxi Province

Based on the application of calculating method in carbon emission methods proposed by the IPCC, the overall and structures of carbon emission from energy consumption in Shaanxi Province during 1980—2010 have been systematically studied, and the stages of carbon emissions have been divided. Through the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), the action level of impact factors of carbon emission has also been analyzed. The results show that: (1) the total and per capita carbon emission were increasing as N-shape curve during the 1980—2010, without considerations of other impact factors, the coal consumption was the major source of carbon emission, it could determine the total carbon emission and per capita carbon emission. During the 1980—2010, the carbon emission in Shaanxi Province experienced three stages: stage of low emission with rapid economic growth (1980—1996), stage of slowly decreasing emission with low economic growth (1996—2000), stage of rapid growth emission with increasing economic growth (2000—2010); (2) the major driver of carbon emissions was the economy output effect, whose contribution ratio reached up to 216.17%, followed by 9.72% of the industry structure, and 8.81% of the population scale effect; 3) the major constraint was the energy intensity effect, whose contribution ratio reached to -131.96%, and the energy structure effect showed a restraining effect, whose contribution ratio reached to -2.75%.