滇中地区降水特征与变化趋势研究

滇中地区是云南省政治、经济和文化与交通的中心，水资源短缺问题非常突出。以滇中地区1960—2011年13个气象站逐年降水量资料为基础，采用线性趋势、IDW空间插值、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析等方法，对滇中地区50 a来降水变化特征与趋势进行了研究，结果表明:（1）滇中地区多年平均降水量为955.65 mm/a，波动于638.30~1627.60 mm之间，年降水量在空间分布上存在显著的区域差异，降水量大致呈现出由滇中中部向两侧逐渐递增的趋势；（2）50 a来，滇中地区降水量呈现减少趋势，速率为7.67 mm/10 a，且年降水量在2008年前后出现突变；（3）滇中地区降水量存在27 a和16 a左右的周期性变化，其中27 a时间尺度上的周期变化最显著，16 a时间尺度上局部特征突出；（4）滇中地区本来就是水资源匮乏区，降水量的减少趋势应该引起相关部门的重视。

Characteristics and Changing Trends of Precipitation in the Center of Yunnan Province,China

Central Yunnan province is the political, economic, cultural and transport center of Yunnan province, the shortage of water resources is very prominent.This paper based on the precipitation data from 13 meteorological stations in center of Yunnan Province from 1960 to 2011.Using linear trend, inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation, Mann-Kendall method and Morlet Wavelet analysis to analyze the characteristics and the changing trends of precipitation in the center of Yunnan Province. The following conclusions are The results showed as follows: (1) In center of Yunnan Province,the long-term average annual precipitation is 995.65 mm/a, undulates to 638.30~1 627.60 mm,there are significant regional differences in spatial distribution of precipitation in the study area, showing an increasing trend from the central to the both sides; (2) in recent 50 years, the precipitation in the center of Yunnan showed the tendency of decrease, and the rate is 7.67 mm/10 a, the shift year is around 2008; (3) in the area, precipitation exists periodic oscillations of 27 and 16 years, and the periodic oscillations of 27-year scale is very significant; (4) In center of Yunnan Province is shortage of water resources district,the decreasing trends of precipitation in the center of Yunnan Province should attract the attention of the relevant departments.