基于Markov模型的长沙市和泉州市土地利用变化预测及对比研究

为探索中国中部地区和东部沿海地区典型代表城市的土地利用程度变化特征和未来演变趋势，采用地理比较分析方法，基于地理信息技术（GIS）、遥感技术和Markov模型对长沙市和泉州市未来土地利用进行模拟预测，结合土地利用程度指数分析1990—2020年期间土地利用的变化情况及其变化趋势异同，试揭示不同时期、不同区域内土地利用程度变化差异性。研究结果表明:1995—2020年期间，长沙市数量结构变化较泉州市更为稳定，耕地和建设用地所占比例结构变化具有较大差异性；土地利用程度指数的对比研究表明，两市综合程度指数均呈现一定增长，且泉州市土地利用综合程度指数变化趋势较长沙市更为显著，其土地利用程度变化量和变化率均大于长沙市。研究结果可为两市区域土地利用规划提供参考，并将有利于我国东南沿海和中部城市土地利用的可持续发展和生态环境保护。

Prediction and Comparison of the Land Use Changes in Changsha City and Quanzhou City Based on Markov Model

Using comparative analysis method of geography, we explored land use change during 1990—2020 based on GIS/RS technology and Markov model in the Changsha City and Quanzhou City. The results show that the quantitative land use structure has the similarity between Changsha and Quanzhou City during 1995 and 2020. However, the structure change of Changsha city is more stable than that of Quanzhou. The cropland and construction land structure change has bigger difference on the whole. And the comprehensive degree index both increased for the two cities, but the change of land use degree of Quanzhou is greater than that of Changsha. The results can provide reference for regional land use planning of the two cities, and will be conductive to the sustainable development of land use and ecological environment protection.