气候变化对开都河流域径流的影响研究

利用SWAT模型模拟开都河流域的径流变化，并采用1990—2009年的水文站点径流数据进行精度验证，然后设定气候变化情景，模拟不同气候条件下径流的响应特征。结果表明:模拟结果与实测径流较吻合，剔除异常年份（1994年、1995年）后，校准期（1990—2000年）效率系数为0.58，平均相对误差为-5.7%，线性拟合度为0.8；验证期（2000—2009年）的结果与校准期接近，均达到了模型的评价标准，说明SWAT模型在开都河流域的适用性较好。基于此，采用任意情景设置方法，设置了25种气候变化（气温和降水）组合情景，研究了该流域对气候变化的响应，结果表明，气候变化对径流量的影响较为显著，降水增加或气温降低均会导致径流量增加，流域未来年均径流变化的主要影响因素是降水，温度的影响相对较弱。

Study on the Effect of Climate Change on Runoff in Kaidu River Basin

Based on the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model, the streamflow in the Kaidu River Basin and its response to climate change were studied. The simulated results were validated by the runoff data of the hydrologic stations from 1990 to 2000. Finally the hydrological response of runoff to climate change was analyzed under different climate change scenarios. Results showed that the SWAT model could effectively simulate the streamflow in the Kaidu River Basin. The Nash-suttcliffes coefficient, average relative error and linearity for the calibration period (1990—2000, excepted for the abnormal precipitation years of 1994 and 1995) were 0.58, -5.7% and 0.8, respectively. The results for the validation period (2000—2009) were closed to that for the calibration period, suggesting the good applicability of SWAT model in the Kaidu River Basin. 25 climate change scenarios were constructed according to the most possible climate change predictions in this basin to study the hydrological response to climate change. Results indicated that climate change showed significant influence on the streamflow. The runoff in the Kaidu River Basin would increase with the increase of precipitation or the decrease of temperature. Furthermore, precipitation showed higher influence on the variation of annual runoff in the basin than temperature.