| 灰色系统理论和可公度性理论在大连市涝灾预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘婷婷,迟道才,曲霞,陈伟,王琦,沈亚西,王海楠.灰色系统理论和可公度性理论在大连市涝灾预测中的应用[J].节水灌溉,2011(2):55-57. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘婷婷 迟道才 曲霞 陈伟 王琦 沈亚西 王海楠 |
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| 作者单位： | 沈阳农业大学水利学院,沈阳,110866 |
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| 基金项目： | 辽宁省重大项目(2008NY01); 辽宁省自然科学基金(20082122) |
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| 摘 要： | 采用大连市1951-2006年的降水资料,应用Z指标法得出大连市1951-2006年的涝灾年份.在这些数据分析的基础上,应用了三元、四元、五元可公度法分别预测了大连市的下一次可能发生的涝灾的年份.同时根据灰色系统理论建立灰色GM(1,1)模型对大连市未来的涝灾年份做出预测.结果表明:两种方法都能较好的应用于大连市涝灾研...
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| 关 键 词： | 涝灾 灰色系统理论 可公度性理论 预测 |
Application of Grey System Theory and Commensurability Theory in Flood Disaster Prediction of Dalian City |
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| LIU Ting-ting
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CHI Dao-cai
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QU Xia
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CHEN Wei
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WANG Qi
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SHEN Ya-xi
,
WANG Hai-nan.Application of Grey System Theory and Commensurability Theory in Flood Disaster Prediction of Dalian City[J].Water Saving Irrigation,2011(2):55-57. |
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| Authors: | LIU Ting-ting CHI Dao-cai QU Xia CHEN Wei WANG Qi SHEN Ya-xi WANG Hai-nan |
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| Institution: | LIU Ting-ting,CHI Dao-cai,QU Xia,CHEN Wei,WANG Qi,SHEN Ya-xi,WANG Hai-nan(College of water conservancy,Shenyang Agricultural University,Shenyang 110866,China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,based on the precipitation data of Dalian city from 1951 to 2006,the characteristics of flood was analyzed by the method of Z-index,by which the year of flood of Dalian city was got among 1951 to 2006.Based on above work,the year when flood disaster may occur was predicted by commensurability that was applied by the way of ternary,quaternion and quintuple.Then,the year when flood disaster may occur was predicted by the GM(1,1)model,which was set based on the grey system method.The result shows... |
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| Keywords: | flood disaster grey prediction method commensurability prediction |
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