应用计算机和气象资料预测粗纹食道口线虫（Oesophagostomum asperum）数量季节消长的研究

根据土源性寄生线虫体外发育期间受温度、湿度、季节和宿主动物影响的原理，采用电子计算机对上述四因子和食道口线虫从卵发育到侵袭性幼虫速度、数量进行回归分析，制定出模拟模型，设计出了在牧地上该种线虫从卵发育到侵袭性幼虫数量预测预报公式，用该公式和气象资料计算出的侵袭性幼虫季节消长曲线，与牧地上宿主羊体内成虫数量消长曲线相一致，初步显示可以采用气象资料和计算机预测牧地上粗纹食道口线虫侵袭性幼虫量的季节动态，从而为防治措施的制定提供依据。

PREDICTING POPULATIONS OF OESOPHAGOSTOMUM ASPERUM INFECTIVE LARVAE ON PASTURE FROM METEOROLOGICAL DATA

A simulation model which described the population dynamics of Oesophagostomum asperum infective larvae on pasture from meterological data was constructed. The rate of development of the nematode from egg to the infective stage at different constant temperatures and humidities and on pasture and the population dynamics of feeal eggs in every month were used. The effect of temperature, humidity, season and host were estimated. The population dynamics of infective larvae predicted are suitable to that of adults in sheep and goat. The model could be used in different climate region and will lead to economically efficient control measures.