福建省粮食生产特点及综合生产能力分析

通过分析2000-2012年福建省粮食生产相关数据，总结福建省粮食生产的主要特点，应用计量经济方法，以柯布-道格拉斯生产函数（C-D生产函数）对福建省粮食综合生产能力影响因素进行分析。福建粮食生产特点总结如下：耕地数量减少，人地关系恶化；生产规模偏小、从业人员老化；综合产能下降、发展后劲不足；基础设施薄弱、自然灾害频发等。模型分析结果表明：（1）粮食播种面积、化肥使用量与粮食产量呈显著正相关，而农村劳动力、成灾面积与粮食产量呈显著负相关，在劳动力方面存在隐蔽性失业；（2）目前福建省粮食生产处于规模报酬不变阶段。最后，从提高粮食生产经营者素质、强化农田基础设施建设和促进农业技术应用创新等3个方面，提出了增强福建粮食生产综合能力的对策建议。

Analysis on the Grain Production Characteristics and the Comprehensive Production Capacity of Fujian Province

Main characteristics of grain production in Fujian Province were summarized ,and the comprehensive grain production capacity was analyzed by C - D function based on the related data from 2000 to 2012 . The grain production characteristics were as follow ：the area of arable land is reduced and the contradiction between man and land is sharp ;the grain production scale is small and the farmers are aged ;the comprehensive productivity declines with little potential ;and the infrastructure is weak and the natural disaster is frequent . The constructed grain production model results showed that （1） the sowing area and chemical fertilizer application amount are the most important factors for grain production with positive correlation ,whil disaster area and rular labor were negatively affects the grain production ,and there was hidden unemployment in rural area ;（2） The grain production of Fujian province was at the stage of constant returns to scale . Finally , according to the results , some suggestions , including the improvement of grain producer , strengthening farmland infrastructure , and the innovation of agricultural production technology ,were proposed to enhance the grain production capacity of Fujian province .