连片特困地区环境压力影响因素分析与预测

为研究连片特困地区在减贫脱贫进程中环境压力的变化,以11个连片特困地区为研究对象,运用调整后的IPAT和STIRPAT模型对贫困地区环境压力变化的影响因素进行了分析并预测至2020年的变化趋势.结果表明:1)财富因素是影响环境压力的主要因素;而人均碳汇资源禀赋尽管在各个片区普遍发挥作用,但影响偏弱.2)技术变化总体上是有利因素,但存在区域差异.在技术弹性系数显著的片区中,技术因素的系数值基本都要高于财富因素,如果保持同等速度增长,技术的正向效应可以弥补产业发展所带来的逆向效应.3)至2020年,连片特困地区环境压力预计将普遍增大,单方面追求环境目标或减排目标均不利于贫困地区实现生态文明建设和经济建设目标.以减排目标为中心,适当调低经济发展目标,是较为可行的协调发展方案.

On Analysis and Prediction of Environmental Stress Factors in Continuous Destitute Areas

To study the change of environmental stress in the process of poverty alleviation in continuous destitute areas, IPAT and STIRPAT models have been adjusted to clarify the influential factors and to predict the trend to 2020. The results show that 1) wealth is the main factor affecting the environmental stress; the impact of carbon sink resources per head despite generally is weak in several areas; 2) TFP indexes are generally favorable factors, with regional differences. In the areas with significant coefficients of technology variables, the positive effects on environmental stress of TFP changes could cover the negative effects of wealth, if they increase in the same pace; 3) the environmental stress of destitute areas would increase generally, excessive pursuit of environmental goal or emission reduction target might not be good for ecological civilization construction and economic development. Targeting on emission reduction goal and moderating lower economic development goal would be a feasible scheme.