早稻纹枯病气象等级预测研究

为了探讨早稻纹枯病气象等级的预测方法，根据醴陵市2011—2013年早稻纹枯病病株率数据田间观测资料，建立了基于气象因子的早稻纹枯病气象等级预报模型，并进行了回代预报检验。结果表明：通过早稻日病株率与日平均气温、日降水量、日照时数、日相对湿度的相关性分析，计算出病株率气象因子权重系数为0.3121、0.2056、0.3024、0.1799，建立了基于气象因子早稻纹枯病气象等级预测模型。早稻纹枯病发生气象等级模型回代预报检验准确率为100%，能较好地预报病情的发生发展，对纹枯病的防治有一定的指导作用，可用于日常纹枯病气象等级预报业务中。

Study on Meteorological Grade Prediction of Early Rice Sheath Blight

In order to discuss meteorological grade prediction method of early rice sheath blight, to gain 2011-2013 early rice sheath blight incidence data, field investigation had carried out. The establishment of meteorological grade model of early rice sheath blight had made, and carried on the back to generation forecast verification. The results showed that: correlation analysis between daily rate of diseased plant and daily average temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, relative humidity had made; the rate of diseased plant meteorological factor weight coefficient was 0.3121, 0.2056, 0.3024, 0.1799, respectively. The establishment of meteorological grade model of early rice sheath blight had made, accuracy rate was 100% for prediction. Meteorological grade model of early rice sheath blight had better forecast effect, and a certain guiding role in prevention and treatment of disease, could be used to forecast the daily meteorological grade of sheath blight.