长江经济带农业绿色增长的时空格局及影响因素研究

加快发展方式转变,促进农业绿色增长是缓解农业污染、提高农业效率的重要举措。长江经济带是我国重要的农业生产区域和产粮基地,为科学分析长江经济带农业绿色经济增长水平及其影响因素,本文采用能值方法定量研究了2003—2017年长江经济带农业绿色生产总值。在此基础上,利用空间计量经济模型分析其时空格局与影响因素。结果表明:1) 2003—2017年长江经济带农业绿色生产总值总体稳定上升,且增幅小于农业传统生产总值,农业绿色生产总值占农业传统生产总值的比重呈下降趋势。2)长江经济带农业绿色生产总值的区域差异明显,其空间格局仍未改变传统经济增长东部高、西部低的空间分布特征。3)长江经济带农业绿色增长在全局上具有显著的空间集聚特征,但这种集聚效应呈逐步减弱趋势。4)经济发展水平、科技创新能力、基础设施投资、劳动力素质和农业政策五大因素对本地区农业绿色增长产生正向影响;科技创新能力、基础设施投资对周边地区农业绿色增长产生积极作用。总体上看,长江经济带农业绿色生产总值稳定上升,且呈现"东部高、西部低"的空间分布特征;经济发展水平、科技创新能力等5大因素综合驱动该时期农业绿色增长的时空变化。

Spatio-temporal patterns and impact factors of green economic growth of agriculture in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Accelerating the transformation of development mode and promoting the growth of green agriculture are important measures to reduce agricultural pollution and improve agricultural efficiency. The Yangtze River Economic Belt is an important agricultural production area and grain production base in China. In order to analyze the level and influential factors of agricultural green growth in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, agricultural green production was estimated from 2003 to 2017, and its spatio-temporal pattern and influencing factors were analyzed by using spatial econometric analysis methods. There were four main results. Firstly, agricultural green production value of the Yangtze River Economic Belt displayed a generally increasing trend, and the rate of increase was lower than the traditional agricultural production value. The proportion of agricultural green production value to the traditional agricultural production value displayed a downward trend. Secondly, a significant regional difference of agricultural green production value was evident in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. However, a similar pattern of traditional production value was evident, which descended from east to west. Thirdly, significant spatial cluster characteristics were observed in agricultural green growth of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The cluster effect gradually weakened. Fourthly, the level of economic development, scientific and technological innovation, infrastructure investment, labor quality, and agricultural policy positively affected green economic growth of agriculture in the local region. Scientific and infrastructure investment positively influenced green growth of agriculture in neighboring regions. In general, agricultural green production in the Yangtze River Economic Belt displayed a steady upward trend in temporal characteristics and a downward trend from east to west in the spatial pattern. The dynamic evolution of spatio-temporal patterns of agricultural green economic development in Yangtze River Economic Belt were driven by combined effects of the impact factors.