考虑产出随机与合作门槛的农户生产模式选择研究

针对农户在现实生产中面临的模式选择问题，在考虑了产出随机和订单农业合作门槛等因素的基础上，构建了“公司+农户”型Stackelberg博弈模型，对比分析了农户在“自繁自养”和“订单农业”两种模式下的最优决策行为。研究表明，当合作门槛较低时，农户应该关注市场规模和现货市场价格，仅当市场规模较大且现货市场价格较低时，选择加入“订单农业”模式收益更大，否则应当选择“自繁自养”模式；当合作门槛较高时，若现货市场价格较低且合作门槛处于合适水平时，选择“订单农业”模式更佳。 

Selection of Farmer's Production Mode Considering Random Yield and Threshold of Contract Farming

Aiming at problem of model selection faced by farmers in actual production，based on consideration of random yield and threshold of contract farming，a Stackelberg game model of“company+farmer”was constructed.Optimal decision making behavior of farmers under two modes of“independent production”and“contract farming”was compared and analyzed.When threshold was low，farmers should pay attention to market size and market price.Only when the market size was large and market price was low，they should choose to join“contract farming”model，otherwise they should choose“independent production”model.When threshold was high，if the market price was low and threshold was at an appropriate level，it was better to choose the“contract farming”model.