基于环境评价的贵阳市土地开发利用优化

目的]结合贵州省贵阳市环境承载力和环境承载量综合评价贵阳市环境状况,为优化土地开发利用提供依据。方法]分别运用生态足迹理论和能值分析方法评价环境承载力和环境承载量,利用灰色预测模型模拟未来环境演化状况。结果]贵阳市环境承载力波动明显,耕地和建设用地生物生产面积变化是主要驱动力;环境承载量快速上升,石油、电力等能源类和建材类、磷矿的能值消耗量大幅增加,废气成为污染物同化的主要压力源。结论]贵阳市当前未出现环境赤字,但根据预测结果,未来环境负荷将会超过环境承受能力阀值,危害区域生态环境安全。需要采取策略优化贵阳市土地开发利用,以避免出现环境赤字,促进可持续发展。

Optimizing Land Use for Guiyang City Based on Environmental Assessment

Objective] The environmental situation of Guiyang City of Guizhou Province was comprehensively assessed to provide guidance for optimizing land use. Methods] Ecological footprint and energy theory were used respectively to quantify environmental carrying capacity(ECC) and environmental load, both of which were stimulated by Grey model for the changing tendency in near future. Results] ECC fluctuated noticeably since 2005 which was predominantly driven by the variation of arable land and construction land. In contrast, environmental load increased stably and quickly, which was mainly caused by the significant expansion of consumptions of petroleum, electric power, building materials and phosphate, and by the ever growing emission of exhaust gas. Conclusion] Environmental load has been below ECC so for, but environmental deficit would come according to the prediction. Measurements that tailored to the main influence factors of ECC and environmental load should be taken to avoid environmental deficit and to facilitating local sustainable development.