Excel在油菜菌核病灰色预测模型构建中的应用

灰色系统理论，为病虫害预测预报提供了新的途径与方法。灰色预测模型的计算，其中关键是计算微分方程^AX（1）（K 1)=(x^(0)(1)-u/a)e^-ak u/a的解。利用Excel计算求解，具有操作方法简便易行，结果准确可靠、实用性强的优点。本文根据洞庭湖区1980～1992年油菜菌核病发病资料，利用Microsoft Excel 200进行计算，建立灰色GM(1，1)长期预测模型，经检验该模型精确度高，预测结果可靠。

Application on establishing grey predicted model of sclerotinia sclerotiorum of excel

Grey system theory has offered a new way and method to forecast plant diseases. The key problem is to solve the differential equation x(1)(K+1)=(x(0)(1)- u/a)e-ak+u/a for the model. And it is not only easy in calculation but also reliable in results to employ Microsoft Excel 2000. A grey GM(1,1) predicted model was established based on the statistical data of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum in the Dongting Lake regions in Hunan province during the years of 1980~1992. The model is highly accurate and its predicted results are reliable.