Large‐scale identification of hot spots for soil carbon demand under climate change and bioenergy production

Global change scenarios predict an increased risk for declining amounts of soil organic matter (SOM) for Central Germany. Within this region the production of bioenergy is one important strategy to counteract the rising anthropogenic CO₂‐emissions. Both issues have a close connection: SOM is an important basis for soil productivity and requires a steady reproduction flux. Bioenergy production requires productive soils and partly consumes plant biomass C. Therefore, the available amount for SOM reproduction is reduced. This study provides a methodology for the large‐scale identification of areas with possible conflicts between bioenergy production and SOM reproduction based on (1) the prediction of climate change impact on SOM reproduction and (2) an analysis of the regional distribution of biogas plants. With the C demand index (CDI) and the capacity index (CAP), two indicators were developed which enable the identification of hot spots of high carbon demand for SOM reproduction due to climate change and the usage of bioenergy. As a result of low data requirements, the indicators are widely applicable and transferable to other large‐scale studies. The proposed methodology was applied to Central Germany as a pilot region. Results indicate a growing demand (10–40%) of fresh organic C from biomass for SOM production in comparison to the current level. The analysis reveals that the bioenergy C demand is not evenly distributed within the study region. It also shows some regional clustering. Furthermore, the analysis identifies certain hot spots of a high C demand, where a high capacity of biogas production may conflict with rising demands for biomass to mitigate climate change effects on SOM storage. The hot spot areas—identified and selected on a large scale—can subsequently be analyzed in more detail on a local to farm scale by using high‐resolution data and models which enable the quantification of soil C dynamics.