中国化肥需求弹性计算

为了分析国家政策对化肥消费的影响,选取1998-2007年不同省份单位面积化肥消费量、化肥价格指数以及农民纯收入为变量,对化肥支出函数进行了回归分析,计算出10年间不同省份化肥需求的价格弹性和收入弹性。结果表明:目前我国农业发展的化肥基本消费量为0.35 t/hm~2,部分省份化肥消费过度;化肥市场还没有真正建立,价格对需求的影响较小。这表明化肥是农业经济发展的必需品,化肥施用量随农民收入的增加而增加,国家政策对化肥价格的干预是其需求不断上升的根本原因之一。这也在一定程度上说明仅通过环境税方式来改变农民化肥消费的政策效果有限,还需要转变现有的单纯促进农业经济发展的政策,朝着依据农民施肥方式是否有利于环境给予差异性补贴转变。

The elasticity of chemical fertilizer demand in China

In order to study the effects of the national policies on chemical fertilizer consumption, the regression analysis of chemical fertilizer-expenditure function was made according to the per unit area consumptions and price indexes of chemical fertilizer and the farmers’net revenues from different Chinese provinces between 1998 and 2007,and the price elasticity and income elasticity of chemical fertilizer demand for the provinces in the 10 years were also calculated.The results showed that the current basic chemical fertilizer consumption was 0.35 t/hm~2 in China’s agricultural development, while in some provinces the chemical fertilizer consumption was excessive;The price had little effect on the demand since the market of chemical fertilizer had not really been set up.This implied that chemical fertilizer was essential for the development of agricultural economy and the national policies to intervene in chemical fertilizer price was an ultimate cause of the increasing demand for chemical fertilizer with the farmers’net revenues rising.Also this indicated to some extent that the effect of the environmental tax policy was limited in changing the farmers’chemical fertilizer consumption,and the existing policies should be changed from simply promoting agricultural economic development to subsidizing the farmers according to their fertilizer application manners to be environment-friendly or not.