寿光日光温室小气候变化规律及模拟方法

为了开展北方日光温室小气候要素预报报务，利用寿光三元朱村三号黄瓜日光温室2007-2010年冬、春季节小气候要素观测资料，对北方日光温室内气温、相对湿度、地温等要素在不同天气类型下的日变化以及温室内气温空间分布规律进行研究。利用相关分析、逐步回归等统计方法对影响日光温室内气温变化的影响因子进行筛选，并建立日光温室未来一天24 h不同天气类型、不同月份、不同时间段的逐小时模拟模型。模拟结果表明，除4月的模拟结果差异较大外，其他各时间段均较好；利用实际观测结果对2010年2-5月温室内气温进行实际检验，模拟预报结果较好，可以将预报模型应用于业务服务。

The Microclimate Change Rules and Simulation Method of Greenhouse in Shouguang City

In order to do the microclimate forecast,the author used the observed data of the cucumber greenhouse which seated in Shouguang City,Shandong from 2007 to 2010,and analyzed the change rules and distribution of microclimate that in greenhouse,such as temperature,humidity and soil temperature under different weather types in winter and spring.The author used statistical method to choose the factors and built simulate models for next 24 h temperature forecasting.According to different months,different weather types and different time in a day,the simulation results were good except the April.Exam models of forecast temperature in greenhouse with observed data and weather forecast of February to May in 2010,and results were good;models could be used in microclimate factor forecast.