密云水源地水环境承载力系统动力学模拟与预测

水环境承载力作为人类活动与水环境系统的联系界面，是判断社会经济与水环境系统是否协调的尺度。针对密云地水环境承载力系统的复杂性，利用系统动力学的动态分析优势和政策实验室功能，建立水环境承载力系统动力学模型，构建指标体系，并结合层次分析法和水环境承载力量化方法，对2008-2020年水环境承载力进行模拟与预测，分析不同优化策略下水环境承载力变化特征。结果表明：（1）现状延续策略下，2008-2020年水环境承载力呈逐年略微下降的趋势；（2）开源、节流和治污、减排2种优化策略均能有效提高的水环境承载力，并且前者的提高幅度大于后者，而区域外调水措施则不能从根本上改善水环境承载力；（3）本地开源、节流措施与治污、减排措施结合后，可以大幅提高水环境承载力，是实现经济活动与水环境协调发展的最佳策略，进一步提出了该区域生态经济协调发展的策略和措施。

Simulation and Prediction of Water Environmental Carrying Capacity in Watershed of Miyun Reservoir Based on System Dynamics Model

Water environmental carrying capacity （WECC） can estimate the relationship between social economy and water environment using system dynamics （SD） method which can analysis WECC dynamic and was called ＇ policy laboratory ＇.Based on the local system complex characteristics of water environment in the watershed of Miyun reservoir,SD model and indicator system were constructed,and than it was simulated and predicted for WECC in this area in 2008 to 2020 under the present condition and different optimization schemes.The simulation results showed that：（1） under the condition of maintaining present development scheme,WECC of the studied area in 2008 to 2020 would be decreased slowly year after year;（2） The scheme of searching for new and saving present water resources was better than the scheme of controlling wastewater pollution and reducing sewage discharge,and both of them could effectively increase the WECC in studied area.In contrary,WECC in this area would be not fundamentally improved if only transfer water from other regions;（3） The integration of searching for new and saving present water resources with controlling wastewater pollution and reducing sewage discharge would be the most effective way to improve the WECC and the coordinated development of social economy and water environment in the first grade water source protection area,Miyun reservoir,Beijing.