海南岛冬种瓜菜暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与区划

基于农业气象灾害系统构成体系和灾害风险理论，依据海南岛18个气象台站1961-2012年9-11月逐日降水数据、地理信息数据、耕地面积和冬种瓜菜种植面积资料，借助GIS技术，采用加权法和自然断点法对海南岛冬种瓜菜暴雨洪涝灾害致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性进行指标构建和风险分析，在此基础上构建冬种瓜菜暴雨洪涝灾害综合风险指数，并将该指数应用于海南岛冬种瓜菜暴雨洪涝灾害的风险区划。结果表明，海南岛东部和东北部地区为冬种瓜菜暴雨洪涝灾害高和次高危险区，其中万宁市大部、琼海市和屯昌县南部、陵水县中部风险最高；西部为次低和低风险区；其余地区为中等风险区。灾情验证结果表明，实际灾情的空间分布与风险区划结果基本吻合。研究结果可为海南冬种瓜菜生产布局、避减灾害风险提供依据。

Assessment and Zoning of Storm Flood Disaster Risk to Winter Vegetables in Hainan Island

Based on the system of agro meteorological disaster，disaster risk theory and materials including daily precipitation data（from September to November） of 18 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2012，geographic information data and data of cultivated area，winter vegetables planting area in Hainan Island，the hazards of disaster causing factors and sensitivity of disaster pregnant environments and vulnerability of storm flood disaster to winter vegetables in Hainan Island were constructed and divided by using GIS and methods of weighting and natural breaks.Furthermore，with the help of the 3 indices，a comprehensive risk index model of storm flood disaster to winter vegetables was constructed to zone the risk of storm flood disaster to winter vegetables in Hainan Island.The results showed that the highest and second highest risk zones of storm flood disaster to winter vegetables were located in the northeastern and eastern areas of Hainan Island such as Wanning， Qionghai，Tunchang and Lingshui.The lowest and second lowest risk zones were located in the western areas.Actual disaster results were matched with risking zone，which provides scientific basis for reducing and avoiding disaster risk and rational production layout of winter vegetables in Hainan Island．