陕西苹果花期预测模型研究

为了增强陕西各苹果产区精确防御花期冻害的能力，有效提高苹果产量和品质，促进陕西苹果产业稳定、持续、健康发展，依据统计分析原理，对陕西各苹果产区花期和花期前的各项气温因子进行详细的相关性分析。结果显示：陕西苹果花期前0~5℃的活动/有效积温与真实花期的相关性好于0~5℃天数与真实花期的相关性；0~5℃的活动/有效积温越靠近真实花期，其与真实花期的相关性越显著；从0℃至5℃各活动/有效积温与苹果花期的相关性呈增高趋势；各有效积温因子与苹果花期相关性好于活动积温因子与苹果花期的相关性。基于以上分析结果，分果区建立了陕西苹果的花期预测模型，并通过回代和预测对模型进行检验。检验结果显示平均误差小于3天，预测结果可为实际生产中苹果花期防灾减灾工作的开展提供参考。

The Research on Shaanxi Apple Florescence Prediction Model

In order to enhance the ability of defenses apple flowering frost damage accurately and improve the apple yield and quality effectively and promote Shaanxi apple industry development stably, sustainably and healthily, based on the principles of statistical analysis, the correlation between apple florescence and the temperature factors before apple florescence were analyzed about all apple producing areas in Shaanxi. The results show, the correlation between 0℃ - 5℃ active/effective accumulated temperature before apple florescence and actual florescence are better than the correlation between 0℃ - 5℃ days before apple florescence and actual florescence; the correlation between 0℃ - 5℃ active/effective accumulated temperature before apple florescence and actual florescence are increasingly significant by they are closing to actual florescence; from 0℃ to 5℃, the correlation between 0℃ - 5℃ active/effective accumulated temperature before apple florescence and actual florescence are showing increasing tendency; the correlation between 0℃ - 5℃ effective accumulated temperature before apple florescence and actual florescence are better than the correlation between 0℃ - 5℃ active accumulated temperature before apple florescence and actual florescence. Based on the above analysis results, established the Shaanxi apple’ flowering prediction models about different producing areas, and tested the models using back substitution and prediction. The test results indicate that average error is less than 3 days and the forecast results provide a reference for disaster prevention and mitigation during the apple florescence.