武都山区农业连阴雨灾害时空演变气候特征及风险区划

为了指导武都山区农民合理安排农业生产工作，提高应对连阴雨灾害能力，确保农业增产、农民增收之目的，从武都区1971—2010年连阴雨资料入手，分析得出：武都区连阴雨主要集中出现在5—10月。其中，5—7月夏收期和9—10月秋收期连阴雨危害最大，出现频率最高，造成的农业灾损最为严重。结合人口、GDP、耕地比等资料，利用ArcGIS软件，得到连阴雨灾害危险性图层，再与承灾体易损性评价、灾害的孕灾背景进行叠加、合并以及等级划分操作，最后得到连阴雨灾害的风险评估及其区划。结果表明：武都区连阴雨危险性等级由高到低、由东南到西北递减，海拔1600 m以上高山区和东南部连阴雨危险性等级最高，为连阴雨高风险区，白龙江流域海拔1300 m以下区域连阴雨危险性等级最低，为连阴雨低风险区。研究结果为指导武都山区巧用天时，科学规划、合理布局、周密安排夏收秋收农业生产工作，预防和减轻连阴雨灾害损失提供了科学依据。

The Temporal and Spatial Climatic Characteristics and Risk Zonation of Continuous Rain Disaster on Agriculture in Mountain Areas in Wudu

In order to guide the farmers to arrange the agricultural production reasonable, improve the ability of coping with continuous rain disaster and insure increasing grain output and promoting peasants’ income. The author analyzed the data of continuous rain from 1971 to 2010 in Wudu District, and the conclusion was as follows: continuous rain mainly occurred between May and October, but the highest occurence frequency of continuous rain was during the summer harvest period from May to July and the autumn harvest period from September to October, which was the most harmful disaster and caused the most serious damage on agriculture in mountain areas in Wudu. Combined with data about population, farmland ratio, GDP of Wudu City, etc, by the utilizing ArcGIS software, the maps of the possibility of disasters are gained. Then, by overlaying and uniting of the background of weather disasters, the vulnerability of stricken things and compartmentalizing the hazard grade, the hazard attributions for continuous rain disaster were achieved. From the map, it was concluded that: the risk grade gradually reduced from the area at high altitude to the area at low altitude, and also from the southeast to the northwest. That was to say, the risk grade of continuous rain disaster was highest at 1600 m above sea level and in the area southeast, and the lowest risk grade in the area below 1300 m and southeast. The above research results were significative to guide the farmers to arrange the summer harvest and the autumn harvest agricultural production strict and reasonable, which could prevent and relieve damage caused by continuous rain.