长输油气管道第三方破坏故障树分析

随机性强,不易预测和控制是油气管道第三方破坏的主要特点,为此建立了油气管道第三方破坏故障树模型。运用故障树分析方法对油气管道第三方破坏失效进行了定性和定量分析。求出了最小割集,识别了第三方破坏引起管道失效的主要因素。通过最小割集求解顶事件发生的概率以及对基本事件进行重要度分析,形成了基于故障树分析模型的定量分析思路和方法,可以为管道路线的选择及安全管理与设计提供参考。

Analysis on Third Party Damage Fault Tree of Long Distance Oil and Gas Pipelines

Complex and extraordinary random,and very difficult to forecast and control is one of the major factors for oil and gas pipeline's third party damage.In allusion to the third party damage factors,the third party damage fault tree is established,qualitative and quantitative analysis is carried out for the invalidation of oil and gas pipeline's third party damage by fault tree analysis method.Minimum cut set is received and the major factor of third party damage that caused pipeline disabled is identified.Probability of top event is educed through minimum cut set,which form a method to analyze the important degree of elementary event and quantitative analysis-based mode.The authors consider that the analysis method based on the third party damage fault tree of the oil and pipeline can provide an reference for pipeline route selection and safety design.