Model-based forecasting of twig canker incidence of bacterial spot of peach in Fukushima Prefecture |
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Authors: | Kawaguchi Akira Nanaumi Takayuki |
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Affiliation: | 1.Western Region Agricultural Research Center (WARC), National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO), 6-12-1 Nishifukatsu-cho, Fukuyama, Hiroshima, 721-8514, Japan ;;2.Research Center for Agricultural Information Technology (RCAIT), NARO, 2-14-1 Nishi-shinbashi, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 105-0003, Japan ;;3.Fruit Tree Research Centre, Fukushima Agricultural Technology Centre, 1 Dannohigashi, Iizaka-machi, Fukushima, Fukushima, 960-0231, Japan ;;4.Graduate School of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture, 1737 Funako, Atsugi, Kanagawa, 243-0034, Japan ; |
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Abstract: | Bacterial spot caused by Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni (Xap) is the most important disease that affects peach production. A disease-forecasting model was developed to help growers decide when to apply bactericides and remove diseased, last-year twigs. To predict the incidence of “spring cankers”, peach twigs damaged by Xap, we used 12 years (2009–2020) of data from Fukushima Prefecture to develop a forecasting system using a hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM). The model included the number of fields with a bacterial spot incidence (BSI) on leaves?≥?10% in late September of the previous season and the number of days with rain (≥?10 mm/day) and maximum wind speed (≥?5 m/s) during the previous October as predictors. Using a best-fit cutoff value based on a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the model achieved a 0.836 accuracy, 0.804 sensitivity, 0.847 specificity, 0.847 precision, and 0.712 F-measure. The model was validated using a fourfold cross-validation (CV) procedure and achieved an average accuracy of 0.847. Thus, the model explained 65.7% of the variability compared to observed frequencies with predicted probabilities of twig canker incidence (TCI)?≥?2% from April to May 2009 to 2020 in Fukushima Prefecture. These results suggest that this disease-forecasting model using HBM based on 12 years of historical data can be used to predict the risk of twig cankers of bacterial spot of peach. |
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