Impacts of climate change on rice market and production capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin

The supply of water is affected by climate changes. In addition, high economic growth in the lower Mekong River countries including two large rice exporters is expected to reduce the per capita consumption of rice as incomes grow. Consequently, the need exist to investigate changes in supply and demand using econometric models of rice markets in the countries, where water supplies are expected to change. The objective of this research is to clarify impacts of water supply changes on rice producers and consumers using supply and demand models of rice considering changes in the water supply to aid in producing agricultural policies and plans. The following two simulations were conducted in this assessment: (a) baseline and (b) CC_B2. The simulation of the baseline includes the assumption that the evapotranspiration (ET) of each province after 2000 is the average quantity of ET from 1995 to 1999. The simulation of the CC_B2 includes the assumptions that ET of each province after 2010 accords with the IPCC socioeconomic scenario B2. The simulation results suggest that climate change will depress wet season rice production in Cambodia and Mekong River Delta (MRD) region in Vietnam, and that of dry season rice in the MRD region in Vietnam and northeastern region (Isan) Thailand. The simulation results also indicate that climate change will increase farm prices of rice in Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand. The results suggest that climate changes will weigh on the livelihood of rice consumers, especially those of poor rural populations.