宝鸡市耕地资源变化与粮食安全研究

摘要:根据宝鸡市1995-2007年粮食生产的相关数据，对宝鸡市耕地面积、粮食总产量、人口变化以及粮食总产与其影响因素进行统计分析。结果表明:1995-2007年，宝鸡市耕地面积及人均耕地面积均呈减少趋势，退耕还林还草工程是其减少的主要影响因素；粮食总产量呈波动上升趋势；粮食总产量与粮食播种面积的年变化率高度一致，而耕地面积与粮食总产量的年变化率趋势并不完全同步，粮食单产的提高抵消了因耕地面积减少所导致的粮食减产，而且可以使粮食总产量出现较大增长，但耕地数量仍是稳定粮食总产的重要因素。

Relationship Between Cultivated Land Change and Food Security In Baoji city

Based on the correlation data of grain production in Baoji County from 1995 to 2007,the statistical analysis is made to analyze grain production with the variation characteristics of the cultivated land,population,and other influencing factors.The results indicates that the cultivated land area of Baoji city and the cultivated land area per capita showed the downtrend,the program for the conversion from cropland to forest and grassland is the main reason for the cultivated land decrease;The total and per capital grain outputs have on the fluctuant rise;The annual change rate of overall grain output is highly consistent with the grain planting area,however,there was no complete synchronization in the trend of inter-annual change ratio between cultivated land area and food production,Improvement of unit yield grain production could not only counteract the food reduction,which was caused by the reduction in cultivated land area,but also improve the food total production greatly.However,the amount of cultivated land was still an important actor of grain total production stabilization.