基于GIS干旱区绿洲县域土地利用生态风险分析及动态预测

在Arc GIS技术支持下,以2009和2014年2期遥感影像和土地利用数据为信息源,以新疆库车县为研究对象,构造了库车县的综合性生态风险指数(ERI)并借助GIS进行空间插值,由此分析了库车县土地利用生态风险动态演变以及不同等级的生态风险的空间分异特征,并根据《库车县土地利用总体规划(2014-2020年)》,预测2020年库车县的土地利用结构变化,从中揭示了土地利用结构的变化对新疆典型干旱区绿洲县域的影响。结果表明:库车县土地利用总体规划对全县土地利用空间结构进行了较大调整,其土地生态风险有明显区域性,高生态风险区的主要土地利用类型为建设用地,主要分布在库车镇以及库车县工业园区周边。生态安全状况由西向东逐渐加重,且西南部较高风险区域有向东北方向蔓延趋势。在未来土地利用结构调整过程中,人们应加强保护环境的意识,在库车县构建良好的生态用地格局,提高全县生态系统服务功能,降低人类活动对环境造成的不良影响。

Ecological Risk Analysis and Dynamic Prediction of Land Use in Oasis County of Arid Area Based on GIS

Under the support of ArcGIS technology,in 2009 and 2014 remote sensing images and land use data as the information source,taking Kuche County in Xinjiang as the research object,we constructed the comprehensive ecological risk index of Kuche county (ERI) and the GIS spatial interpolation,then analyzed the characteristic of dynamic evolution and different levels of ecological risk the ecological risk of land use in Kuche County.According to the overall land use planning (2014-2020),to predict the change of land use structure in Kuche County in 2020,revealed that the land use change structure how to affect Xinjiang in Typical Add Region Oasis from the county.The results showed that the spatial structure of land use are a larger adjustment of general land use planning in Kuche County,where land ecological risk have obvious regional differences,the main land use types in the area of high ecological risk to construction land,mainly distributed in Kuche Town,Kuche County Industrial Park.The surrounding ecological security situation gradually increased from west to east and southwest to the northeast region has a higher risk of spreading trend.In the future land use structure adjustment process,people should strengthen the consciousness of protect the environment,build a good ecological land pattern in Kuche County.To improve the service function of ecological system,reduce the adverse effects of human activities on the environment.