利率市场化背景下银行系统性危机的实证研究

从利率市场化的国际经验来看,无论是在发达国家还是发展中国家,其实施过程都容易导致不同程度的银行业危机。采用1973～2012年42个国家的面板数据,对利率市场化背景下的银行业危机进行的实证研究表明：利率市场化的推进将增加银行系统性危机发生的机率,特别是在存款利率市场化阶段,而严格的银行监管是抑制银行系统危机发生的有效方法;显性存款保险制度的设立无助于利率市场化后银行系统性风险的防范,甚至有可能会增加危机发生的机率;资本账户开放下进行利率市场化会增加银行系统危机发生的机率。利率市场化进程中允许开设民营银行不会增加银行系统危机的发生机率。

An Empirical Study of Interest Rate Liberalization and Banking Systemic Crisis

In view of the international experience of interest rate liberalization reform, both developed countries and developing countries have met with systemic banking crisis of different levels. In this paper, we adopted a panel data of 42 countries from 1973 to 2012, empirically testing the relationship between interest rate liberalization and systemic banking crisis, to examine the distress caused by interest rate liberalization to banking system of China. Our research shows that: (1) as the degree of interest rate liberalization increases, the probability of systemic banking crisis rises, this phenomenon appears more distinct in the case of deposit rate liberalization, while stricter bank supervision should be an effective method to reduce banking crisis probability; (2) the establishment of explicit deposit insurance has no effect in guarding against baking systemic risk after interest rate liberalization, but appears to increase the likelihood of banking crises; (3) interest rate liberalization during the period of capital account liberalization tends to increase the likelihood of banking crises; and (4) allowing bank privatization in the period of liberalization will not increase likelihood of banking crisis.