地方政府债券置换对银行信贷及货币供给的影响

通过构建基于商业银行资产负债结构的地方债置换分析框架，研究表明，地方债置换将通过商业银行资产结构在贷款与债券之间的配置调整影响货币供给，它将使银行可贷资金增加，并导致贷款规模的变化，在贷款创造存款的信用放大机制下，引起货币供应量的变化，进而造成货币政策的扩张（收缩）。贷款市场的供求弹性将决定地方债置换的扩张效应或收缩效应。在经济增长放缓、银行为弥补持有地方债收益下降、地方债纳入货币政策工具的抵押品和质押品范围的情况下，地方债置换具有货币政策扩张效应。为减少地方债对金融市场的冲击，央行需密切监测商业银行资金运用情况，提高货币政策操作的针对性，并加强同财政政策的协同配合。

The Effect of Local Government Debt Replacement on Bank Credit and Monetary Supply

By constructing an analytical framework of commercial bank balance sheet, the paper shows that local government debt replacement will influence the monetary supply policy through the commercial bank asset allocation between loan and bond. Local government debt replacement will increase bank''s loanable fund, thus changing the size of loan. Through the credit amplification mechanism of loan create deposit, the money supply will change. The elasticity of loan market supply and demand will determine the expansion effect or contraction effect of local government debt replacement. In the case of slow economic growth, bank''s recuperation for lower earning, and the monetary policy instrument''s security involved in local government bond, local government debt replacement will bring the expansion effect. To reduce the impact of local government debt replacement on the financial markets, the central bank should monitor the fund use of commercial bank, improve the relevance of monetary policy, and cooperate with fiscal policy.