| 刺萼龙葵对中国玉米产业造成的潜在经济损失评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴志刚,方焱,秦萌,秦誉嘉,王聪,赵谈,李志红.刺萼龙葵对中国玉米产业造成的潜在经济损失评估[J].中国农业大学学报,2015,20(6):138-145. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴志刚 方焱 秦萌 秦誉嘉 王聪 赵谈 李志红 |
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| 作者单位： | 西藏大学 农牧学院, 西藏 林芝 860000;天津出入境检验检疫局, 天津 300461;全国农业技术推广服务中心, 北京 100125;中国农业大学 农学与生物技术学院, 北京 100193;中国农业大学 农学与生物技术学院, 北京 100193;中国农业大学 农学与生物技术学院, 北京 100193;中国农业大学 农学与生物技术学院, 北京 100193 |
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| 基金项目： | 农业部外来入侵生物防治项目(U071,U337) |
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| 摘 要： | 为了更加全面地预见和了解刺萼龙葵的入侵危害,本研究在收集、分析国内外相关资料的基础上,采用@RISK软件和蒙特卡洛随机模拟方法,建立了刺萼龙葵对我国玉米产业造成的潜在经济损失评估模型,从直接经济损失和防治费用2个方面进行了评估。评估结果显示,刺萼龙葵可能对我国玉米产业造成的潜在经济损失总值在29.37~350.83亿元,损失率在0.83%~8.92%。
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| 关 键 词： | 刺萼龙葵 玉米 @RISK 经济损失 有害生物风险分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/6/8 0:00:00 |
Potential economic loss assessment on maize industry of China caused by buffalobur (Solanum rostratum) |
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| WU Zhi-gang,FANG Yan,QIN Meng,QIN Yu-ji,WANG Cong,ZHAO Tan and LI Zhi-hong.Potential economic loss assessment on maize industry of China caused by buffalobur (Solanum rostratum)[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2015,20(6):138-145. |
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| Authors: | WU Zhi-gang FANG Yan QIN Meng QIN Yu-ji WANG Cong ZHAO Tan and LI Zhi-hong |
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| Institution: | Agricultural and Animal Husbandry College, Tibet University, Linzhi 860000;Tianjin Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau, Tianjin 300461, China;National Agro-technical Extension and Service Center, Beijing 100125, China;College of Agriculture and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;College of Agriculture and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;College of Agriculture and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;College of Agriculture and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to foresee and realize the risk of invasion of Solanum rostratum, We collected the relevant data published at national and international journals and by combining the @RISK software and the Monte Carlo stochastic simulation method,we built potential economic loss assessment model of the maize industry of China caused by buffalobur (S.rostratum) on direct economic losses and the cost of prevention and control.The results showed that the total economic loss was estimated to be 2.937-35.083×108 yuan,and the loss rat was estimated to be 0.83%-8.92%. |
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| Keywords: | Solanum rostratum maize @RISK economic losses pest risk analysis (PRA) |
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