| 基于灰色动态模型群的需水预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王韶伟,许新宜,贾香香,徐劲草.基于灰色动态模型群的需水预测研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2010,0(2):29-31. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王韶伟 许新宜 贾香香 徐劲草 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学水科学研究院水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京,100875 |
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| 基金项目： | 水利部《节水型社会建设》资助项目(水综节水[2007]4号) |
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| 摘 要： | 依据灰色系统理论,构造了一个由5个GM(1,1)模型组成的灰色动态模型群,并运用该模型对福建省泉州市用水量变化趋势进行了预测分析。研究表明,灰色动态模型群能够充分利用近期用水量信息预测未来用水量变化趋势;以模型群统计平均值作为最终预测值,避免了单一灰色模型容易利用不稳定信息的缺陷,使得预测精度更加准确,预测结果更为可信。
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| 关 键 词： | 需水量预测 灰色动态模型群 泉州 |
Prediction of Water Demand Based on the Gray Dynamic Model Group |
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| WANG Shao-wei
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XU Xin-yi
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JIA Xiang-xiang
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XU Jin-cao.Prediction of Water Demand Based on the Gray Dynamic Model Group[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2010,0(2):29-31. |
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| Authors: | WANG Shao-wei XU Xin-yi JIA Xiang-xiang XU Jin-cao |
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| Institution: | WANG Shao-wei,XU Xin-yi,JIA Xiang-xiang,XU Jin-cao(College of Water Science,Beijing Normal University,Key Laboratory of Water , Sediment Sciences,Ministry of Education,Beijing 100875,China) |
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| Abstract: | A gray dynamic model group made up of 5 simple gray models is put forward.Then the model group is used to predict the trend of water consumption in Quanzhou,Fujian Province.The result shows that the gray dynamic model group can make full use of the recent information about water consumption to predict the future trend of water consumption,and that the prediction result stemming from gray dynamic model group is more accurate and reliable than that of a simple gray model. |
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| Keywords: | water demand prediction gray dynamic model group Quanzhou |
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