| 灰色线性组合模型在涝灾预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 迟道才,沈亚西,王琦,王海南,吴秀明,张特男.灰色线性组合模型在涝灾预测中的应用[J].沈阳农业大学学报,2011,42(5):592-595. |
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| 作者姓名： | 迟道才 沈亚西 王琦 王海南 吴秀明 张特男 |
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| 作者单位： | 沈阳农业大学水利学院,沈阳,110161 |
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| 基金项目： | 辽宁省重大项目(2008NY01);辽宁省教育厅重点实验室项目(2009S091);辽宁省自然科学基金项目(20082122) |
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| 摘 要： | 灰色线性组合模型由于在传统灰色预测模型的基础上加入了对数据的线性分析,在各个领域应用已较为广泛.应用灰色线性组合模型,以沈阳市1960～2006年的降雨量作为数据依据,建立模型对涝灾进行预测.结果表明:组合模型较好的拟合了预测灾变年,预测误差小于普通灰色预测模型,为涝灾预测增加了一种新方法.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测 灰色线性组合 涝灾预测 |
Forecast of Flood Disaster Based on a Grey Linear Regression Combined Model |
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| CHI Dao-cai
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SHEN Ya-xi
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WANG Qi
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WANG Hai-nan
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WU Xiu-ming
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ZHANG Te-nan.Forecast of Flood Disaster Based on a Grey Linear Regression Combined Model[J].Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University,2011,42(5):592-595. |
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| Authors: | CHI Dao-cai SHEN Ya-xi WANG Qi WANG Hai-nan WU Xiu-ming ZHANG Te-nan |
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| Institution: | (College of Water Conservancy,Shenyang Agricultural University,Shenyang 110161,China) |
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| Abstract: | Grey linear regression combined model has added linear analysis on the basis of traditional grey prediction model,which has been widely used in various fields.A grey linear combination model based on the rainfall data during 1960 to 2006 in Shenyang was established to predict flood disaster.The results showed that combination model was better to predict cataclysm years,and the prediction error was less than ordinary grey prediction model. |
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| Keywords: | grey prediction grey linear regression combined forecasting flood disaster |
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