DISAGGREGATED ANALYSIS OF FISH SUPPLY,DEMAND, AND TRADE IN ASIA: BASELINE MODEL AND ESTIMATION STRATEGY

ABSTRACT

Quantitative modeling of fish supply, demand and trade is a useful tool for analyzing recent structural changes, such as the rapid development of aquaculture. Existing models are, however, limited by their use of highly aggregated fish categories and assumed (rather than estimated) elasticities. This paper outlines an estimation strategy and a multiproduct equilibrium model for disaggregated analysis of fish supply, demand, and trade. The model is composed of a producer, consumer and trade core, and is specified to accommodate special features of the fish sector. The estimation and modeling strategy also address common data problems, such as heterogeneity of fish types, diversity of production categories, and so forth. The model has been applied to nine major fish producers in developing Asia.