Application of systems-simulation in the Venezuelan cattle industry

This paper shows how systems-simulation can be applied to answer agricultural development type questions. A computer simulation model of the Venezuelan cattle industry is presented, some of the validation efforts are discussed, and results from a number of computer runs are shown in order to illustrate how alternative programmes might affect the transition of the traditional cattle population to a more modern and productive population. Different programmes are shown to accomplish some objectives better than others. No optimisation over all possible development objectives was attempted, as this would depend upon the relative weights attached to the objectives by the decision-makers.It has been the authors' experience that modelling of biological and economic processes provides an important link between observations about the real world (raw data) and decision-makers in an information system designed to provide useful information. The building and operation of the computer model of the Venezuelan cattle population illustrates how a systems-simulation approach can be used in policy formulation.