松嫩平原的粮食生产潜力分析及建议

采用基于积因子位次数据赋值求权重方法改进的层次分析算法对松嫩平原各地区粮食生产潜力和主要影响因素贡献进行分析。研究结果表明:松嫩平原粮食增产潜力最大的地区是哈尔滨、绥化和长春,增产潜力最小的地区是黑河(该市所属的嫩江县、五大连池市和北安市属松嫩平原)；各地区粮食生产潜力存在差异的主要原因是各地区的水土资源和气候条件的不同,两者的权重系数均为0.28,其次是科技投入,其权重系数为0.25。在松嫩平原地区,粮食生产潜力影响最大的因素是各市的黑土面积比例,其贡献系数为0.22,这是松嫩平原区别于其它地区的重要特点；其次是作物生长期的平均气温,再次是化肥的是施用量,两者的贡献权重分别为:0.13和0.10。为有效增强松嫩平原地区的农业生产能力,需要重点加强对黑土的保护和对农田水利基础设施建设,加大农业科技的投入和推广,扩大适应气候变暖的高产作物和品种的种植面积。

Assessment of grain production potential in Songnen Plain and relevant suggestions

Songnen plain production potential and contributions of its major impact factors were assessed by using analytic hierarchy process(AHP) method derived from Aecumulation Factor Sequence Evaluating weight method. Recom-mendations and some suggestions were proposed based on the study results and the eurrent situation of Songnen plain grain production. The study results showed that Harbin, Suihua and Changehun had the highest grain produetion potential, and Heihe City had the smallest one. Water and soil resource and climatic condition were major limit factors causing the difference of production potential, and contribution weight of both of them were 0.28. The second factor causing produetion potential difference was science and technology investment, and its contribution weight was 0.25. In Songnen Plain, black soil ratio was the largest faetor determining the food produetion potential; its contribution weight was 0.22. Average temperature and fertilizer use were also the important faetors for food production potential, and their contribution weights were 0.13 and 0.10. In conclusion, to improve food production, it is very important to enhance the protection of black soil and strengthen the construction of farmland water conservancy infrastructure, to increase investment and promote application of agricultural science and technology, and to expand the planting area of high-yield crop or species that adapted well to the climate warming.