气候变化对粳稻生产效率的影响研究

运用随机前沿超越对数生产函数和省级面板数据,综合考虑气候因素和粳稻生产投入要素,测算我国粳稻1980～2012年的生产效率,并使用效率损失模型测算出气候变化对粳稻效率缺失的影响情况.结果表明,粳稻的生产效率呈现出上升的趋势,但波动较为平稳;降水量和日照时数对粳稻生产效率缺失有显著（1％水平）正的影响,即降水量和日照时数的增加均会使粳稻生产效率降低;平均气温会促进粳稻生产效率的提高,但影响并不显著.

Effects of Climate Change on Japonica Rice Production Efficiency

Using stochastic frontier beyond logarithmic production function model and provincial panel data,considering the climATic factors and Japonica rice production input factors,Japonica rice productivity from 1980 to 2012 in China was estimated,and then the impact of climate change on the efficiency of the missing was measured by using efficiency loss model.The main conclusions are：Japonica rice productivity showing a rising trend,but volatility is relatively stable; rainfall and sunshine hours have a significant （1％ level） positive impact on lack of productivity,namely,rainfall and sunshine hours＇increase will reduce Japonica rice production efficiency; the average temperature will promote Japonica rice production efficiency,but the effect is not significant.